Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

Southeast Asia

The epidemic situation in many countries in Southeast Asia is stable, the recovery of production and demand is accelerating, and the regional economy is showing signs of continuous improvement,with output in the manufacturing sector is stabilizing and the decline in new orders is narrowing, and the purchasing managers' index (PMI) continues to rise. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI)  in ASEAN countries was 53.5 in September, up from 52.3 in August and the highest level since October. Manufacturing PMI in Thailand and Indonesia increased to varying degrees compared with the previous month.

Chinese Mainland

In September, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.1 per cent, up 0.7 per cent from the previous month. With the continuous promotion of China's stable economic policy, the manufacturing industry maintained the momentum of recovery, and both supply and demand rebounded, basically facing good development. In addition, the impact of high-temperature weather has receded, manufacturing prosperity has warmed up, and PMI has returned to the range of expansion.

Figure 1 Southeast Asia & China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Comparison in 2021-2022 (%)

Notes: If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.

Source: S&P Global, National Bureau of Statistics of People's Republic of China.

Spot Market Analysis

Market Overview

Southeast Asia (SEA or SE Asia)：Recently increased TDI prices in Southeast Asia. The main reason is that the TDI price in the Chinese market has risen sharply recently, and the TDI supplier has increased the quotation for exports. However, due to the rapid price fluctuations, the quotations of some exporters have not been significantly increased for the time being, so lower quotations (about 2750~2800 USD/tonne) have also been heard.

China：China TDI market rose at an accelerated pace this week. During China National Day holiday, the market was still active. After the holiday, TDI prices jumped sharply under the firm support from the supply side. Major suppliers successively raised guide prices by a wide margin. Covestro's facility failure and Wanhua Chemical's routine maintenance made the overall industrial operating rate drop to around 30%. Besides, the logistics in Xinjiang was hindered due to the local epidemic, and spot goods continued to be short. Goods in the secondary market was also rare, and downstream manufacturers had limited inventories. So TDI quotations kept rising sharply. Traders controlled the supply and chose to deliver high-priced orders. Negotiated prices moved upward strongly.

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